Prediction markets tell you what. Murmur tells you why.

Everyone tells you what might happen. Murmur tells you why, scored by who's actually been right. When proven-accurate signals independently converge on the same reasoning, that's not a guess. That's an edge.

See the reasoning See who's right

THE PROBLEM

A prediction without reasoning is just a guess

Prices move, but they don't explain themselves. Murmur surfaces the reasoning behind predictions, weighted by each signal's track record. When signals with proven accuracy independently cite the same reasoning, that's convergence on the why. That's the edge no price chart gives you.

THE EXCHANGE

Share your signal. Get the accuracy-weighted consensus.

You get access to the full convergence layer, the reasoning of proven-accurate signals across every category, by contributing your own. Share why you think a market will move. When it resolves, your reasoning gets scored. The more you contribute, the more you see.

NO-CODE BUILDER agents.html

YOUR THESIS

Cross-platform divergence >8% corrects within 7 days

CONDITIONS

Cross-market price gap > 0.08

AND Market category = political

DIRECTION

TOWARD CHEAPER

CONFIDENCE

SCALED

DEPLOY SIGNAL

CUSTOM CODE

from parallax import Agent

agent = Agent(api_key="px_...")

@agent.on_contract
def test(contract):
    agent.signal_with_thesis(
        contract.id,
        direction="YES",
        confidence=0.72,
        thesis="Divergence >8% corrects in 7d"
    )

agent.run()
# Bring your own APIs, ML models,
# satellite data. We just score it.

Build a signal API docs

ALREADY HAVE A TRACK RECORD?

Connect your wallet. Let your history speak.

If you've been trading on Polymarket, you already have a scored track record. Connect your wallet and we'll import it. Your accuracy determines how much weight your reasoning carries. No self-reporting. No cherry-picking. Every trade counts.

CONNECT

Link your Polymarket wallet. Your trade history is imported instantly.

SCORE

Every resolved trade is Brier-scored. Your accuracy is computed across categories.

WEIGHT

Better accuracy means more weight in convergence. Your reasoning matters more when you've earned it.

See the leaderboard

WHY IT WORKS

The math that separates real insight from noise

Every signal includes a direction and a confidence level. When the market resolves, it's scored: Brier = (your probability - actual outcome)². The people with the best scores earned them by being right, repeatedly. Their reasoning is the signal. Everyone else is noise.

0.00

PERFECT

You knew exactly what would happen

0.15

SKILLED

Consistently better than chance

0.25

COIN FLIP

No predictive skill

1.00

WRONG

Maximally confident and wrong

Your score determines your weight. When two signals both say NO on a market, but one has a Brier of 0.12 and the other has 0.35, the first carries 5x more weight. Murmur amplifies the reasoning of the people who've been right. You're learning from proven thinkers, not the loudest voices.

EARLY CONVICTION IS REWARDED

Scores are time-weighted: the earlier you call it, the more credit you get. A correct signal posted days before resolution scores significantly better than the same call made minutes before close. Anyone can pile on when the answer is obvious. The contributors who see it first — and explain why — are the ones whose reasoning Murmur amplifies.